The hottest periodic rebound does not change the g

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The periodic rebound does not change the glass bear market pattern

the trend of glass is still weak since the second quarter due to the domestic economic slowdown and the regulation of real estate policies. Then connect the socket with the stump on his leg. At this stage, it is in the seasonal peak consumption season, and the glass futures price also shows a trend of first restraining and then rising. Because the prices of production enterprises have risen too fast recently, and the willingness of circulation channels and processing enterprises to purchase goods is not strong, it is difficult for the spot intermediate market to follow up sharply in the short term, and it is still dominated by weak shocks

entering the peak consumption season, the downstream demand of the market starts slowly, and the demand of the south market is slightly better than that of the north. Stimulated by the recent price rise of manufacturers, middlemen in many places purchase goods in an appropriate amount to cover their positions, but it will not play a significant role in driving demand in the short term. Manufacturers around the country are still based on the mentality of keeping prices high, stabilizing prices to speed up sales and maintaining principal. Although the demand is slowly recovering seasonally, except in South China, the inventory of enterprises and dealers is still in a high position, with a small decline. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall national demand is in a relatively stable environment. On the supply side, as the production lines put into production in the early stage enter production and operation, the subsequent supply may continue to increase. The contradiction between supply and demand is severe, and the short-term price will still be sawed in the mentality of slow destocking in the downstream and enterprise inflation

in terms of cost, since mid April, the prices of soda ash and heavy oil have been 121 The stepping electromechanical loading system was 99 yuan/ton and 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged month on month. Generally, the price of soda ash lags behind the price of glass for about 1 ~ 1.5 months. With the rebound of demand after construction, the price of soda ash may rise in the short term, which will support the cost to a certain extent and have a certain impact on the profits of manufacturers. However, considering that the gross profit margin of production enterprises is still about 7%, the impact of rising costs on the operating rate of increased traffic and the price of finished products will not be too great. By the end of April, there were a total of 292 float production lines in China, including 72 cold repair, shutdown and water drainage in the whole industry. The total shutdown rate was 24.7%, and the total melting capacity accounted for 19.6%, declining month on month. The highest point in history occurred in March 2012, when the whole industry was facing losses, and the total melting volume of shutdown accounted for 21.7%. In the future, with the ignition of new production lines, the industrial operating rate is easy to rise but difficult to fall

in terms of inventory, although there has been a slight decline on a month on month basis, it is expected that the decline rate will slow down in the future. There is a seasonal recovery in market demand everywhere. South China and East China have basically started, while the demand in North China has shown signs of starting. The destocking progress of circulation channels in South China is relatively fastest, and the slow recovery of demand makes inventory. The inventory of the industry was 26.89 million heavy containers by the end of April, which was basically flat month on month, but it was still at a historical high. The historical highest point also appeared at 30.16 million heavy containers in March 2012. It is expected that as the industry comes out of the off-season, inventory will continue to decline from a high level in the future. The absolute amount of decline will not change the fact of high inventory, and the month on month decline will slow down

as the fg1305 contract is about to be delivered, the glass futures price also stops falling, but the relative premium of the main 1309 contract is still at a high level. On the one hand, the high rise in water is that the warehouse receipts in may need to be cancelled forcibly, and the non spot bulls are unwilling to undertake the warehouse receipts. On the other hand, it also shows that the recovery of downstream demand is not high, and the buyer is not interested. From the perspective of selling and hedging, the 1305 contract is roughly consistent with the spot price in Hebei, and the 615 warehouse receipts registered in the exchange are enough to meet the delivery, and the short sellers are also willing to participate in the delivery. And according to seasonal factors, fg1401 is also at a high level with a premium of 30 yuan/ton compared with fg1309 contract. Bulls are more willing to pull up the far month contract. The six scales corresponding to the surface Rockwell reflect the characteristics of phased rebound under weak fundamentals

according to the plan, in May, the exchange will adjust the discount of the glass factory warehouse in consideration of the differences in the actual quality and price between the factories and warehouses. According to the current premium, glass enterprises in East China and South China generally believe that the premium for factories and reservoirs in Shahe region of Hebei Province is low, and the premium for local enterprises is not enough. However, we believe that the adjustment of the premium range between regions is difficult to really cause substantial disturbance to the futures price. The overall warm market environment is the main factor for the technical rebound of glass futures prices in recent times. In the long run, the weak characteristics of the industry have not changed much, and the periodic rebound does not change the bear market pattern. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department

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